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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-12-29T06:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36050/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the southeast in STEREO A COR2 and as a partial halo directed towards the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 imagery. The source is likely related to an eruption and subsequent M2.0 flare from from Active Region 13939 (S17E30) starting around 2024-12-29T04:40Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. A subsequent dimming is observed around the eruption site in GOES SUVI 195 imagery at this time as well.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-12-31T15:44Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-12-31T15:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-12-29T0955Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 1015
Longitude (deg): E24
Latitude (deg): S25
Half-angular width (deg): 52

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: Dean Hall

Lead Time: 33.67 hour(s)
Difference: 0.73 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-12-30T06:04Z

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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